Thiruvananthapuram: Amid
fears among emigrants from Kerala of losing jobs in Saudi Arabia in
the wake of new labour policy 'nitaqat', a recent study has indicated a
decreasing trend in emigration from the state.
The number of Kerala emigrants living abroad in 2011 is estimated to be 2.28 million, up from 2.19 million in 2008, 1.84 million in 2003 and 1.36 million in 1998, indicating that the increase during inter-survey periods shows a decreasing trend, study by K C Zachariah and S Irudaya Rajan of Centre for Development Studies here.
Irudaya Rajan told media that "Kerala is going to be out of the emigration picture in future". How the happenings in Saudi Arabia going to effect was a matter that 'we have to watch'. Probably it might further decrease the emigration now itself',he said.
The survey point towards emergence of an era of decreasing trend in emigration from the state. Kerala's Gulf connection could reach its inflexion point in a matter of 4-5 years,the study said. The increase could vanish much before 2015 and the migration trend could very well slope downward, it was stated.
Emigration from the state was dominated by Muslims whose share of the emigrants from the state (44.3 per cent) continued to remain very much higher than their share in the population (26.5 per cent). Migrants from the state are mostly Hindus, whose share of out-migrants (64.6 per cent) continued to remain much higher than their share in the population (56.8 per cent).
Among the Muslims, 53.3 per cent of the households had at least one emigrant or return emigrant. However, among the Hindu households, only 19.6 per cent of the households had a non-resident Keralite. Among Christians only 21.3 per cent had one or more non-resident Keralites.
Remittances from emigrants abroad to Kerala in 2011 were estimated to be approximately Rs 49,695 crore compared with Rs. 43,288 crores in 2008. Remittances were Rs. 63,315 per household in 2011 compared with Rs. 57,227 in 2008. Increase in remittances during 2008-11 (15 per cent) was much larger than increase in the number of emigrants (4 percent), the study said.
Stating that the remittances, which is 31 per cent of state domestic product, from abroad plays a vital role in state's economy, emigration and the ensuing remittances continue to remain the single most dynamic factor in Kerala's economic scenario.
Another study on emigrants returning to Kerala showed that there were roughly over 1.3 million return emigrants. The number of return emigrants was expected to increase to about 1.6 million by 2015. The study said largest number of emigrants from Kerala live in the United Arab Emirates, but the largest number of return emigrants was from Saudi Arabia.
The average number of years of residence of return emigrants abroad was higher for emigrants to UAE than for emigrants to Saudi Arabia, which has one of the lowest averages. The Gulf countries that are relatively more attractive for the Kerala emigrants are Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait, the study said.
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